GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
41%57%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Color +16%Color · 3 maps
MirageNemesis pick
67%50%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Color · 2 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
55%71%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Color +16%Color · 3 maps
InfernoColor ban
54%60%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Color +6%Color · 1 map
NukeColor ban
77%50%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +27%Color · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%33%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge Nemesis +7%Color · 2 maps
OverpassColor pick
43%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Color +7%Color · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Dust2
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Mirage
4. PickColor take Overpass
5. BanColor remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Ancient
DeciderCache (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Nemesis 30%Color 70%
The model gave 70% on Color — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Nemesis 47%Color 53%
The model gave 53% on Color — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 85%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2