GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
63%65%
1win · 15 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 33 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
59%48%
1win · 13 mapsedge 1win +11%SPARTA · 19 maps
MirageSPARTA pick
36%56%
1win · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +20%SPARTA · 21 map
Cachepossible decider
64%50%
1win · 7 mapsedge 1win +14%SPARTA · 10 maps
Nuke1win ban
50%52%
1win · 0 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 17 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
40%43%
1win · 11 mapsnearly even -3%SPARTA · 3 maps
Inferno1win ban
57%60%
1win · 3 mapsnearly even -3%SPARTA · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Nuke
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Mirage
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. Ban1win remove Inferno
DeciderCache (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
1win 28%SPARTA 72%
The model gave 72% on SPARTA — the map was taken by 1win.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
1win 51%SPARTA 49%
The model gave 51% on 1win — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
1win 61%SPARTA 39%
The model gave 61% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 67%
Series result1win 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3