GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FORZE Reload#86 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UPGRADE#101 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FORZE Reload ban
64%50%
FORZE Reload · 7 mapsedge FORZE Reload +14%UPGRADE · 2 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
55%50%
FORZE Reload · 7 mapsedge FORZE Reload +5%UPGRADE · 0 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
57%71%
FORZE Reload · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +14%UPGRADE · 3 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
63%33%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge FORZE Reload +30%UPGRADE · 2 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
63%40%
FORZE Reload · 4 mapsedge FORZE Reload +23%UPGRADE · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
FORZE Reload · 2 mapsedge FORZE Reload +17%UPGRADE · 2 maps
DefaultUPGRADE pick
40%60%
FORZE Reload · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +20%UPGRADE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
4. PickUPGRADE take Default
5. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
6. BanFORZE Reload remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
FORZE Reload 79%UPGRADE 21%
The model gave 79% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
FORZE Reload 32%UPGRADE 68%
The model gave 68% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
FORZE Reload 64%UPGRADE 36%
The model gave 64% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 51%
Series resultUPGRADE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3