Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MTX#359 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMTX ban
50%57%
MTX · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 3 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
43%50%
MTX · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%33%
MTX · 1 mapedge MTX +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
MTX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 0 maps
MirageMTX ban
40%60%
MTX · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisMTX pick
50%40%
MTX · 0 mapsedge MTX +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMTX remove Ancient
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
3. PickMTX take Anubis
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
6. BanMTX remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
MTX 53%BASEMENT BOYS 47%
The model gave 53% on MTX — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
MTX 57%BASEMENT BOYS 43%
The model gave 57% on MTX — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 66%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2