IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Passion UA pick
50%57%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge Passion UA +7%Passion UA · 3 maps
MirageNatus Vincere pick
60%43%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapedge Natus Vincere +17%Passion UA · 3 maps
AncientPassion UA ban
71%50%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +21%Passion UA · 0 maps
InfernoNatus Vincere ban
50%57%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +7%Passion UA · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Passion UA · 0 maps
NukePassion UA ban
40%40%
Natus Vincere · 1 mapnearly even +0%Passion UA · 1 map
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%60%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%Passion UA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanPassion UA remove Ancient
3. PickNatus Vincere take Mirage
4. PickPassion UA take Dust2
5. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
Natus Vincere 47%Passion UA 53%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Natus Vincere 69%Passion UA 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 91%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2