PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#20 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
magic#40 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHEROIC pick
40%60%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge magic +20%magic · 1 map
Infernomagic ban
40%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge magic +10%magic · 0 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
50%60%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge magic +10%magic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
2. Banmagic remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
HEROIC 28%magic 72%
The model gave 72% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
HEROIC 53%magic 47%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
HEROIC 40%magic 60%
The model gave 60% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 63%
Series resultmagic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3