PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
33%67%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge magic +34%magic · 5 maps
InfernoHEROIC ban
33%50%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 2 maps
Dust2HEROIC pick
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%magic · 2 maps
OverpassHEROIC ban
50%67%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 2 maps
Ancientmagic ban
50%40%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%magic · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Overpass
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
5. Banmagic remove Ancient
6. BanHEROIC remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
HEROIC 18%magic 82%
The model gave 82% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
HEROIC 63%magic 37%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
HEROIC 33%magic 67%
The model gave 67% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 65%
Series resultmagic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3