NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TDK pick
63%40%
TDK · 4 mapsedge TDK +23%Sashi · 1 map
AncientSashi ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 0 maps
AnubisTDK ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 0 maps
InfernoSashi pick
40%60%
TDK · 1 mapedge Sashi +20%Sashi · 1 map
MirageSashi ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 0 maps
NukeTDK ban
50%50%
TDK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
TDK · 1 mapedge TDK +10%Sashi · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickSashi take Inferno
5. BanSashi remove Ancient
6. BanTDK remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
TDK 28%Sashi 72%
The model gave 72% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
TDK 74%Sashi 26%
The model gave 74% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Overpassprediction missed14:16
TDK 50%Sashi 50%
The model gave 50% on TDK — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 68%
Series resultSashi 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3