PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons ban
50%57%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsedge Falcons +7%Falcons · 3 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
40%67%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge Falcons +27%Falcons · 2 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
67%50%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%Falcons · 0 maps
MirageFalcons pick
60%60%
The MongolZ · 1 mapnearly even +0%Falcons · 1 map
NukeThe MongolZ pick
50%40%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge The MongolZ +10%Falcons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons remove Inferno
3. PickThe MongolZ take Nuke
4. PickFalcons take Mirage
5. BanFalcons remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
The MongolZ 40%Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
The MongolZ 69%Falcons 31%
The model gave 69% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Mirageprediction missed12:16
The MongolZ 50%Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 63%
Series resultFalcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3