PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#8 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Falcons#4 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2The MongolZ pick
60%60%
The MongolZ · 1 mapnearly even +0%Falcons · 1 map
AncientThe MongolZ ban
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 1 map
InfernoFalcons ban
60%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +10%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
2. BanFalcons remove Inferno
3. PickThe MongolZ take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
The MongolZ 47%Falcons 53%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
The MongolZ 63%Falcons 37%
The model gave 63% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Mirageprediction missed12:16
The MongolZ 50%Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 50%
Series resultFalcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3