NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTNC pick
67%55%
Oxuji · 2 mapsedge Oxuji +12%TNC · 7 maps
NukeOxuji pick
75%67%
Oxuji · 4 mapsedge Oxuji +8%TNC · 5 maps
MirageOxuji ban
50%56%
Oxuji · 2 mapsedge TNC +6%TNC · 5 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
40%63%
Oxuji · 1 mapedge TNC +23%TNC · 4 maps
Dust2TNC ban
38%40%
Oxuji · 4 mapsnearly even -2%TNC · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
71%40%
Oxuji · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +31%TNC · 1 map
OverpassTNC ban
50%33%
Oxuji · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +17%TNC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOxuji remove Anubis
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickOxuji take Nuke
4. PickTNC take Ancient
5. BanTNC remove Dust2
6. BanOxuji remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (71% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Oxuji 57%TNC 43%
The model gave 57% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Oxuji 50%TNC 50%
The model gave 50% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 53%
Series resultOxuji 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2