PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
40%67%
FURIA · 1 mapedge Spirit +27%Spirit · 2 maps
MirageFURIA ban
57%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +7%Spirit · 0 maps
NukeSpirit ban
43%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge Spirit +7%Spirit · 0 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%67%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Spirit +17%Spirit · 2 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
67%50%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge FURIA +17%Spirit · 0 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
60%50%
FURIA · 1 mapedge FURIA +10%Spirit · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanFURIA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
FURIA 23%Spirit 77%
The model gave 77% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Overpassprediction correct16:12
FURIA 63%Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
FURIA 57%Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on FURIA — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 63%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3