PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2#7 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2G2 ban
40%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge G2 +10%G2 · 4 maps
MirageG2 ban
60%29%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +31%G2 · 3 maps
AncientG2 pick
40%67%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge G2 +27%G2 · 2 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
60%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +10%G2 · 2 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
50%67%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge G2 +17%G2 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
2. BanG2 remove Mirage
3. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
4. PickG2 take Ancient
5. BanG2 remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
The MongolZ 37%G2 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Infernoprediction correct19:15
The MongolZ 63%G2 37%
The model gave 63% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 59%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2