NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
71%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +14%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
56%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Eternal Fire · 1 map
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
67%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
60%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +27%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
33%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Eternal Fire · 1 map
InfernoEternal Fire ban
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
5. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 57%Eternal Fire 43%
The model gave 57% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Nuclear TigeRES 68%Eternal Fire 32%
The model gave 68% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 51%
Series resultEternal Fire 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2