NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
43%72%
AM · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +29%Walczaki · 14 maps
AncientAM ban
50%64%
AM · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +14%Walczaki · 7 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%75%
AM · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Walczaki · 8 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%67%
AM · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 5 maps
InfernoAM pick
67%50%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +17%Walczaki · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%57%
AM · 1 mapnearly even +3%Walczaki · 3 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
40%57%
AM · 1 mapedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickAM take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanAM remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
AM 34%Walczaki 66%
The model gave 66% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
AM 36%Walczaki 64%
The model gave 64% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2