Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAcend ban
50%67%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsedge Acend +17%Acend · 2 maps
MirageAcend pick
67%67%
100 Thieves · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 2 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
57%50%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Acend · 0 maps
NukeAcend ban
57%50%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge 100 Thieves +7%Acend · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%50%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
100 Thieves 47%Acend 53%
The model gave 53% on Acend — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
100 Thieves 60%Acend 40%
The model gave 60% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
100 Thieves 33%Acend 67%
The model gave 67% on Acend — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 51%
Series result100 Thieves 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3