BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
72%57%
BESTIA · 14 mapsedge BESTIA +15%Grêmio · 3 maps
NukeGrêmio pick
60%50%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge BESTIA +10%Grêmio · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%43%
BESTIA · 4 mapsedge BESTIA +7%Grêmio · 3 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
33%67%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge Grêmio +34%Grêmio · 2 maps
AncientGrêmio ban
56%40%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge BESTIA +16%Grêmio · 1 map
MirageGrêmio ban
75%33%
BESTIA · 4 mapsedge BESTIA +42%Grêmio · 2 maps
DefaultBESTIA ban
50%60%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +10%Grêmio · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickGrêmio take Nuke
5. BanGrêmio remove Ancient
6. BanBESTIA remove Default
DeciderCache (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
BESTIA 18%Grêmio 82%
The model gave 82% on Grêmio — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
BESTIA 69%Grêmio 31%
The model gave 69% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 76%
Series resultBESTIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2