PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Monte#23 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
50%63%
Monte · 0 mapsedge magic +13%magic · 4 maps
Dust2Monte pick
60%60%
Monte · 1 mapnearly even +0%magic · 1 map
InfernoMonte ban
50%50%
Monte · 0 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 2 maps
Nukemagic ban
33%50%
Monte · 2 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 0 maps
OverpassMonte ban
40%60%
Monte · 1 mapedge magic +20%magic · 1 map
Anubismagic ban
60%50%
Monte · 1 mapedge Monte +10%magic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMonte remove Overpass
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickMonte take Dust2
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
5. Banmagic remove Anubis
6. BanMonte remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Monte 47%magic 53%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by Monte.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Monte 53%magic 47%
The model gave 53% on Monte — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 69%
Series resultMonte 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2