Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionHHAFOloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MTX#207 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientHAFO ban
50%40%
HAFO · 0 mapsedge HAFO +10%MTX · 1 map
NukeMTX ban
50%40%
HAFO · 0 mapsedge HAFO +10%MTX · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAFO remove Ancient
2. BanMTX remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
HAFO 47%MTX 53%
The model gave 53% on MTX — the map was taken by MTX.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
HAFO 63%MTX 37%
The model gave 63% on HAFO — the map was taken by MTX.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAFO · 59%
Series resultMTX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2