Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MTX#359 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gatorianwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGatorian ban
50%50%
MTX · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Gatorian · 0 maps
Dust2MTX pick
40%50%
MTX · 1 mapedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 0 maps
InfernoMTX ban
40%50%
MTX · 1 mapedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 0 maps
MirageGatorian pick
40%50%
MTX · 1 mapedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMTX remove Inferno
2. BanGatorian remove Nuke
3. PickMTX take Dust2
4. PickGatorian take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
MTX 47%Gatorian 53%
The model gave 53% on Gatorian — the map was taken by Gatorian.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
MTX 53%Gatorian 47%
The model gave 53% on MTX — the map was taken by Gatorian.
Model check result
Model favoriteMTX · 54%
Series resultGatorian 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2