BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
50%71%
BET-M · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Walczaki · 10 maps
AncientBET-M ban
29%70%
BET-M · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +41%Walczaki · 6 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
50%70%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +20%Walczaki · 6 maps
MirageBET-M pick
67%63%
BET-M · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Walczaki · 4 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
50%57%
BET-M · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%67%
BET-M · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%57%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Ancient
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickBET-M take Mirage
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanBET-M remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
BET-M 13%Walczaki 87%
The model gave 87% on Walczaki — the map was taken by BET-M.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
BET-M 58%Walczaki 42%
The model gave 58% on BET-M — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
BET-M 29%Walczaki 71%
The model gave 71% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3