NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
57%57%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 3 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
33%38%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +5%Johnny Speeds · 4 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds pick
50%67%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +17%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
AnubisJohnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +10%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%60%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
OverpassEternal Fire ban
50%60%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Anubis
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Ancient
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
6. BanEternal Fire remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Eternal Fire 31%Johnny Speeds 69%
The model gave 69% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Eternal Fire 63%Johnny Speeds 37%
The model gave 63% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 57%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2