PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#8 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientThe MongolZ ban
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%Spirit · 1 map
Dust2Spirit pick
50%60%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%Spirit · 1 map
InfernoSpirit ban
60%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +10%Spirit · 0 maps
MirageThe MongolZ pick
60%50%
The MongolZ · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +10%Spirit · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickThe MongolZ take Mirage
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
The MongolZ 37%Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
The MongolZ 43%Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 50%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2