NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
50%64%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Lavked +14%Lavked · 10 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
50%46%
Sashi · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Lavked · 9 maps
NukeSashi ban
50%62%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Lavked +12%Lavked · 9 maps
AncientSashi ban
50%70%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 6 maps
InfernoSashi pick
50%40%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%Lavked · 6 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%60%
Sashi · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Ancient
2. BanLavked remove Overpass
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Dust2
6. BanSashi remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Sashi 36%Lavked 64%
The model gave 64% on Lavked — the map was taken by Sashi.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Sashi 63%Lavked 37%
The model gave 63% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 61%
Series resultSashi 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2