NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FAVBET#105 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFAVBET pick
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FAVBET · 4 maps
AncientFAVBET ban
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%FAVBET · 0 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 3 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%FAVBET · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%40%
Eternal Fire · 1 mapedge Eternal Fire +20%FAVBET · 1 map
DefaultEternal Fire ban
50%50%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FAVBET · 2 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
50%67%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge FAVBET +17%FAVBET · 2 maps
MirageFAVBET ban
33%50%
Eternal Fire · 2 mapsedge FAVBET +17%FAVBET · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
2. BanFAVBET remove Mirage
3. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
4. PickFAVBET take Nuke
5. BanFAVBET remove Ancient
6. BanEternal Fire remove Default
DeciderAnubis (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Eternal Fire 50%FAVBET 50%
The model gave 50% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 60%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1