PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#18 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFalcons ban
60%50%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +10%9z · 0 maps
Dust29z ban
60%50%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +10%9z · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Ancient
2. Ban9z remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Falcons 47%9z 53%
The model gave 53% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Falcons 53%9z 47%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
Falcons 60%9z 40%
The model gave 60% on Falcons — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 60%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3