PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFalcons pick
60%67%
Falcons · 1 mapedge 9z +7%9z · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
60%50%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +10%9z · 2 maps
Anubis9z ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%9z · 1 map
Inferno9z pick
50%60%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 1 map
Mirage9z ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%9z · 1 map
NukeFalcons ban
50%60%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 1 map
OverpassFalcons ban
50%60%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons take Ancient
4. Pick9z take Inferno
5. Ban9z remove Mirage
6. BanFalcons remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Falcons 37%9z 63%
The model gave 63% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Falcons 63%9z 37%
The model gave 63% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
Falcons 60%9z 40%
The model gave 60% on Falcons — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 75%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3