NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT pick
40%33%
Tricked · 1 mapedge Tricked +7%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT ban
57%50%
Tricked · 3 mapsedge Tricked +7%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
50%63%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +13%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
AncientTricked pick
50%57%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
43%50%
Tricked · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%50%
Tricked · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
DefaultTricked ban
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickTricked take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Nuke
6. BanTricked remove Default
DeciderOverpass (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Tricked 54%MOUZ NXT 46%
The model gave 54% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Overpassprediction missed13:9
Tricked 36%MOUZ NXT 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 74%
Series resultTricked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2