NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#139 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
50%50%
Tricked · 0 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
AncientTricked pick
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Dust2Tricked ban
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
3. PickTricked take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Tricked 47%MOUZ NXT 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Tricked.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
Tricked 53%MOUZ NXT 47%
The model gave 53% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 52%
Series resultTricked 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2