PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#11 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2#12 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge G2 +10%G2 · 1 map
InfernoG2 ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge G2 +10%G2 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
2. BanG2 remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
MOUZ 47%G2 53%
The model gave 53% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
MOUZ 53%G2 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
MOUZ 40%G2 60%
The model gave 60% on G2 — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3