PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2#7 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientG2 pick
60%67%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge G2 +7%G2 · 2 maps
Dust2G2 ban
50%43%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +7%G2 · 3 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
40%33%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge MOUZ +7%G2 · 2 maps
OverpassMOUZ ban
50%67%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge G2 +17%G2 · 2 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge G2 +10%G2 · 1 map
NukeG2 ban
60%50%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge MOUZ +10%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
2. BanG2 remove Nuke
3. PickMOUZ take Mirage
4. PickG2 take Ancient
5. BanG2 remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
MOUZ 54%G2 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the map was taken by G2.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
MOUZ 60%G2 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
MOUZ 40%G2 60%
The model gave 60% on G2 — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3