BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAlliance ban
50%64%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Lavked +14%Lavked · 10 maps
Dust2Lavked ban
50%50%
Alliance · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 8 maps
NukeLavked pick
50%58%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Lavked +8%Lavked · 8 maps
AncientAlliance ban
40%70%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Lavked +30%Lavked · 6 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
40%44%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even -4%Lavked · 5 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%60%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Overpass
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickLavked take Nuke
5. BanLavked remove Dust2
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Alliance 39%Lavked 61%
The model gave 61% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Alliance 48%Lavked 52%
The model gave 52% on Lavked — the map was taken by Alliance.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Alliance 50%Lavked 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 73%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3