NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%67%
SPARTA · 4 mapsedge ex-RUBY +17%ex-RUBY · 2 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
57%60%
SPARTA · 3 mapsnearly even -3%ex-RUBY · 1 map
AncientSPARTA ban
33%40%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Nukeex-RUBY ban
67%60%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge SPARTA +7%ex-RUBY · 1 map
InfernoSPARTA ban
33%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +17%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Overpassex-RUBY ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
2. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Overpass
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
SPARTA 44%ex-RUBY 56%
The model gave 56% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
SPARTA 53%ex-RUBY 47%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
SPARTA 33%ex-RUBY 67%
The model gave 67% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 51%
Series resultex-RUBY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3