Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#62 in the world · win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gatorianloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAcend ban
50%60%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 1 map
NukeGatorian ban
50%60%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Ancient
2. BanGatorian remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Acend 37%Gatorian 63%
The model gave 63% on Gatorian — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Acend 53%Gatorian 47%
The model gave 53% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteGatorian · 59%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2