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PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fisher College#85 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPARIVISION pick
40%44%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even -4%Fisher College · 5 maps
InfernoFisher College ban
40%38%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even +2%Fisher College · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%33%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
NukeFisher College ban
50%33%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
AnubisFisher College pick
50%60%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
DefaultPARIVISION ban
50%60%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
OverpassPARIVISION ban
50%60%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Overpass
2. BanFisher College remove Inferno
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickFisher College take Anubis
5. BanFisher College remove Nuke
6. BanPARIVISION remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
PARIVISION 64%Fisher College 36%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
PARIVISION 48%Fisher College 52%
The model gave 52% on Fisher College — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 84%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2