NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTNC pick
50%60%
TDK · 0 mapsedge TNC +10%TNC · 6 maps
MirageTDK pick
60%56%
TDK · 1 mapnearly even +4%TNC · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
40%57%
TDK · 1 mapedge TNC +17%TNC · 3 maps
NukeTDK ban
50%63%
TDK · 0 mapsedge TNC +13%TNC · 4 maps
Dust2TNC ban
67%40%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TDK +27%TNC · 1 map
OverpassTNC ban
60%40%
TDK · 1 mapedge TDK +20%TNC · 1 map
InfernoTDK ban
40%50%
TDK · 1 mapedge TNC +10%TNC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Inferno
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Mirage
4. PickTNC take Ancient
5. BanTNC remove Dust2
6. BanTDK remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed16:12
TDK 37%TNC 63%
The model gave 63% on TNC — the map was taken by TDK.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
TDK 50%TNC 50%
The model gave 50% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 60%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2