IEM Beijing 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Acend#45 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemiga ban
33%53%
Nemiga · 8 mapsedge Acend +20%Acend · 13 maps
MirageAcend pick
56%47%
Nemiga · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +9%Acend · 15 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%57%
Nemiga · 6 mapsedge Acend +7%Acend · 10 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%69%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Acend +19%Acend · 12 maps
OverpassAcend ban
50%33%
Nemiga · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Acend · 8 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
75%57%
Nemiga · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +18%Acend · 3 maps
CacheAcend ban
50%38%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +12%Acend · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Overpass
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Cache
6. BanNemiga remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Nemiga 72%Acend 28%
The model gave 72% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Nemiga 28%Acend 72%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 51%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2