BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
50%57%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
50%60%
Alliance · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
AncientAlliance ban
40%60%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
60%60%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
40%40%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
MirageAlliance ban
50%60%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
6. BanAlliance remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
Alliance 28%Nuclear TigeRES 72%
The model gave 72% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Alliance 46%Nuclear TigeRES 54%
The model gave 54% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 75%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2