PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoGentle Mates pick
50%57%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
50%67%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%Gentle Mates · 2 maps
MirageGentle Mates ban
50%33%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +17%Gentle Mates · 2 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
50%50%
MOUZ · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Gentle Mates · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
2. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
3. PickMOUZ take Nuke
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:12
MOUZ 47%Gentle Mates 53%
The model gave 53% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
MOUZ 69%Gentle Mates 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
MOUZ 33%Gentle Mates 67%
The model gave 67% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 74%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3