NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sashi#91 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sashi ban
72%25%
GenOne · 49 mapsedge GenOne +47%Sashi · 12 maps
NukeGenOne pick
61%46%
GenOne · 27 mapsedge GenOne +15%Sashi · 9 maps
AncientGenOne ban
48%56%
GenOne · 29 mapsedge Sashi +8%Sashi · 5 maps
InfernoSashi pick
53%78%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge Sashi +25%Sashi · 5 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
39%67%
GenOne · 14 mapsedge Sashi +28%Sashi · 2 maps
AnubisSashi ban
60%67%
GenOne · 11 mapsedge Sashi +7%Sashi · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%78%
GenOne · 4 mapsedge Sashi +28%Sashi · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Overpass
2. BanSashi remove Dust2
3. PickGenOne take Nuke
4. PickSashi take Inferno
5. BanSashi remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
GenOne 22%Sashi 78%
The model gave 78% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
GenOne 46%Sashi 54%
The model gave 54% on Sashi — the map was taken by GenOne.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
GenOne 65%Sashi 35%
The model gave 65% on GenOne — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 56%
Series resultSashi 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3