Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EAC#76 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic ban
62%41%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +21%EAC · 13 maps
AnubisEAC ban
56%63%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge EAC +7%EAC · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
69%46%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +23%EAC · 9 maps
Dust2EAC ban
56%40%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +16%EAC · 1 map
Nukefnatic ban
50%38%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +12%EAC · 12 maps
CacheEAC pick
63%70%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge EAC +7%EAC · 6 maps
Infernofnatic pick
80%25%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +55%EAC · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickEAC take Cache
5. BanEAC remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (69% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:13
fnatic 39%EAC 61%
The model gave 61% on EAC — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
fnatic 72%EAC 28%
The model gave 72% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 52%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2