BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AaB#69 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAaB pick
43%55%
Nemiga · 3 mapsedge AaB +12%AaB · 7 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
67%60%
Nemiga · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +7%AaB · 6 maps
NukeAaB ban
60%38%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +22%AaB · 4 maps
AnubisNemiga ban
60%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +10%AaB · 2 maps
MirageAaB ban
50%40%
Nemiga · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +10%AaB · 1 map
Dust2Nemiga ban
40%50%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge AaB +10%AaB · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Dust2
2. BanAaB remove Nuke
3. PickNemiga take Overpass
4. PickAaB take Ancient
5. BanAaB remove Mirage
6. BanNemiga remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Nemiga 63%AaB 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by AaB.
Overpassprediction correct13:5
Nemiga 54%AaB 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Nemiga 71%AaB 29%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 59%
Series resultNemiga 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3