BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAM ban
50%63%
AM · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +13%ASTRAL · 4 maps
MirageAM pick
60%71%
AM · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +11%ASTRAL · 3 maps
NukeAM ban
60%57%
AM · 1 mapnearly even +3%ASTRAL · 3 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
50%29%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +21%ASTRAL · 3 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 2 maps
DefaultASTRAL pick
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Ancient
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Mirage
4. PickASTRAL take Default
5. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
6. BanAM remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
AM 35%ASTRAL 65%
The model gave 65% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by AM.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
AM 74%ASTRAL 26%
The model gave 74% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 55%
Series resultAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2