United21 League Season 48 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
50%63%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +13%BIG Academy · 4 maps
Dust2Fire Flux pick
50%43%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%BIG Academy · 3 maps
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
MirageBIG Academy ban
50%50%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
OverpassFire Flux ban
50%67%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%BIG Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Overpass
2. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
5. BanBIG Academy remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Fire Flux 35%BIG Academy 65%
The model gave 65% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Fire Flux 53%BIG Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Fire Flux 57%BIG Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 62%
Series resultBIG Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3