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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
QuantumXloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoQuantumX ban
50%67%
QuantumX · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Alter Ego · 2 maps
MirageAlter Ego pick
50%50%
QuantumX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
AncientAlter Ego ban
50%60%
QuantumX · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
AnubisQuantumX pick
50%40%
QuantumX · 0 mapsedge QuantumX +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Dust2QuantumX ban
50%60%
QuantumX · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%40%
QuantumX · 0 mapsedge QuantumX +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQuantumX remove Inferno
2. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
3. PickQuantumX take Anubis
4. PickAlter Ego take Mirage
5. BanAlter Ego remove Ancient
6. BanQuantumX remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
QuantumX 43%Alter Ego 57%
The model gave 57% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
QuantumX 37%Alter Ego 63%
The model gave 63% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 63%
Series resultAlter Ego 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2