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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Haunted House#236 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoHaunted House ban
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Haunted House · 0 maps
Dust2Haunted House pick
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge Haunted House +21%Haunted House · 0 maps
NukeHaunted House ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge Haunted House +21%Haunted House · 0 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
40%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge Haunted House +10%Haunted House · 0 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors pick
40%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge Haunted House +10%Haunted House · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
2. BanHaunted House remove Inferno
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Cache
4. PickHaunted House take Dust2
5. BanHaunted House remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Chinggis Warriors 47%Haunted House 53%
The model gave 53% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Haunted House.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Chinggis Warriors 31%Haunted House 69%
The model gave 69% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Chinggis Warriors 29%Haunted House 71%
The model gave 71% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteHaunted House · 53%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3