ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
50%27%
XDM · 0 mapsedge XDM +23%5star · 7 maps
InfernoXDM pick
50%50%
XDM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%5star · 6 maps
Cache5star pick
50%56%
XDM · 0 mapsedge 5star +6%5star · 5 maps
NukeXDM ban
50%56%
XDM · 0 mapsedge 5star +6%5star · 5 maps
Mirage5star ban
50%50%
XDM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%5star · 2 maps
AnubisXDM ban
50%60%
XDM · 0 mapsedge 5star +10%5star · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Anubis
2. Ban5star remove Ancient
3. PickXDM take Inferno
4. Pick5star take Cache
5. Ban5star remove Mirage
6. BanXDM remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
XDM 53%5star 47%
The model gave 53% on XDM — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
XDM 47%5star 53%
The model gave 53% on 5star — the map was taken by XDM.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
XDM 73%5star 27%
The model gave 73% on XDM — the map was taken by XDM.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 62%
Series resultXDM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3