ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
56%53%
Yawara · 12 mapsnearly even +3%Keyd Stars · 13 maps
AncientKeyd Stars pick
46%53%
Yawara · 9 mapsedge Keyd Stars +7%Keyd Stars · 15 maps
Dust2possible decider
55%44%
Yawara · 7 mapsedge Yawara +11%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%67%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge Keyd Stars +17%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
57%38%
Yawara · 3 mapsedge Yawara +19%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%36%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge Yawara +14%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
40%40%
Yawara · 1 mapnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickKeyd Stars take Ancient
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (55% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Yawara 63%Keyd Stars 37%
The model gave 63% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
Yawara 41%Keyd Stars 59%
The model gave 59% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Yawara 53%Keyd Stars 47%
The model gave 53% on Yawara — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 76%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3