ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%57%
ShindeN · 5 mapsnearly even -1%ALKA · 10 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
50%63%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 12 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
73%64%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge ShindeN +9%ALKA · 7 maps
NukeShindeN ban
30%50%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge ALKA +20%ALKA · 6 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%55%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
CacheShindeN ban
33%56%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge ALKA +23%ALKA · 5 maps
OverpassALKA ban
71%50%
ShindeN · 3 mapsedge ShindeN +21%ALKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Nuke
2. BanALKA remove Overpass
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. BanShindeN remove Cache
DeciderAncient (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
ShindeN 45%ALKA 55%
The model gave 55% on ALKA — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
ShindeN 40%ALKA 60%
The model gave 60% on ALKA — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 57%
Series resultShindeN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2