ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVoca pick
56%50%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Voca +6%New Legends · 0 maps
Dust2New Legends ban
67%50%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Voca +17%New Legends · 0 maps
CacheNew Legends pick
38%50%
Voca · 4 mapsedge New Legends +12%New Legends · 0 maps
MirageNew Legends ban
63%50%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Voca +13%New Legends · 0 maps
NukeVoca ban
57%50%
Voca · 3 mapsedge Voca +7%New Legends · 0 maps
AnubisVoca ban
40%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge New Legends +10%New Legends · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Anubis
2. BanNew Legends remove Dust2
3. PickVoca take Ancient
4. PickNew Legends take Cache
5. BanNew Legends remove Mirage
6. BanVoca remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Voca 64%New Legends 36%
The model gave 64% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Voca 58%New Legends 42%
The model gave 58% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 75%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2