ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Club 333#172 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Club 333 pick
50%50%
FarmVille · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Club 333 · 8 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
50%58%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge Club 333 +8%Club 333 · 8 maps
MirageClub 333 ban
50%44%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge FarmVille +6%Club 333 · 5 maps
NukeFarmVille pick
50%44%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge FarmVille +6%Club 333 · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
2. BanClub 333 remove Mirage
3. PickFarmVille take Nuke
4. PickClub 333 take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
FarmVille 53%Club 333 47%
The model gave 53% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
FarmVille 39%Club 333 61%
The model gave 61% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Club 333.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
FarmVille 56%Club 333 44%
The model gave 56% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 50%
Series resultFarmVille 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3