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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
67%29%
Villainous · 5 mapsedge Villainous +38%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
40%55%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +15%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
40%33%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +7%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
40%67%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +27%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
50%60%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 1 map
OverpassVillainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%50%
Villainous · 1 mapedge Villainous +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanVillainous remove Overpass
DeciderCache (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
Villainous 33%Overtake Sector 67%
The model gave 67% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
Villainous 43%Overtake Sector 57%
The model gave 57% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Villainous 83%Overtake Sector 17%
The model gave 83% on Villainous — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 54%
Series resultOvertake Sector 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3