ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
pre-match prediction
Shimmer#202 in the worldseries probability
48%52%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
Iowa Stormboar#201 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageShimmer ban
60%40%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Shimmer +20%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
40%50%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AncientShimmer pick
50%57%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
50%43%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Shimmer +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
40%33%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Shimmer +7%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
AnubisShimmer ban
50%50%
Shimmer · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShimmer remove Anubis
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickShimmer take Ancient
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanShimmer remove Mirage