ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shimmer#241 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageShimmer ban
60%40%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Shimmer +20%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
40%50%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AncientShimmer pick
50%57%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
50%43%
Shimmer · 2 mapsedge Shimmer +7%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
40%33%
Shimmer · 1 mapedge Shimmer +7%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
AnubisShimmer ban
50%50%
Shimmer · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShimmer remove Anubis
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickShimmer take Ancient
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanShimmer remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Shimmer 60%Iowa Stormboar 40%
The model gave 60% on Shimmer — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Shimmer 37%Iowa Stormboar 63%
The model gave 63% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 50%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2