ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
pre-match prediction
Arcade#155 in the worldseries probability
43%57%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
Mindfreak#114 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
50%57%
Arcade · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 10 maps
MirageArcade ban
50%56%
Arcade · 4 mapsedge Mindfreak +6%Mindfreak · 5 maps
NukeArcade pick
43%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Mindfreak · 6 maps
AnubisArcade ban
50%38%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Arcade +12%Mindfreak · 4 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
43%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Mindfreak · 1 map
CacheMindfreak ban
50%50%
Arcade · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Anubis
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickArcade take Nuke
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. BanArcade remove Mirage