ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
50%57%
Arcade · 2 mapsedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 10 maps
MirageArcade ban
50%56%
Arcade · 4 mapsedge Mindfreak +6%Mindfreak · 5 maps
NukeArcade pick
43%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Mindfreak · 6 maps
AnubisArcade ban
50%38%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Arcade +12%Mindfreak · 4 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
43%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Mindfreak · 1 map
CacheMindfreak ban
50%50%
Arcade · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Anubis
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickArcade take Nuke
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. BanArcade remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Arcade 56%Mindfreak 44%
The model gave 56% on Arcade — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Arcade 40%Mindfreak 60%
The model gave 60% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Arcade.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Arcade 44%Mindfreak 56%
The model gave 56% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 57%
Series resultMindfreak 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3