ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheJust Swing pick
60%75%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +15%Rare Atom · 4 maps
InfernoRare Atom ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Rare Atom · 2 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
AnubisRare Atom pick
50%60%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
MirageJust Swing ban
50%60%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickRare Atom take Anubis
5. BanRare Atom remove Inferno
6. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Just Swing 53%Rare Atom 47%
The model gave 53% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Just Swing 47%Rare Atom 53%
The model gave 53% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 54%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2